Prototyping and Simulation

Maybe my insight is not new.  But I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

I have been working on a project in the solar energy arena.  My company is developing a two axis tracking system that will improve the energy harvest of flat roof and residential solar installations.  Its going really well.  A real mechatronic challenge.  The magic is in creating an electromechanical solution that moves a single solar panel cost effectively.  Not an easy project.

We modeled the initial solution and found some limitations in the range of motion that would have negative effect on the energy harvest.  Its easy to get the solar panel to rotate 45 degrees to the east from a flat storage position.  But that isn’t always enough to maximize the amount of solar energy converted to electricity.  And when the elevation angle is combined with the rotation of the azimuth, there were significant limits to the motion, and therefore limits the amount of energy from the solar panels.  So we started working on an improved solution.

This, by the way, is the great thing about software simulation.  You can study something without making any hardware.

And this lead me to think about the nature of solid model and finite element analysis software.  I think there may be a mis-impression about the nature of these products.  The goal of solid modeling is not to eliminate the prototyping process, the goal is to make prototyping faster and less expensive.  Which goes hand in hand with the explosion in rapid prototyping technology.  More on that later.

Maybe its a poor analogy, but I can’t help recalling Thomas Edison’s search for the improved electric light.  And by the way, Edison didn’t patent the electric light.  He improved it after purchasing a Canadian patent from Dr. Henry Woodward and Matthew Evans.  The electric light was first demonstrated by Sir Humphry Davy in 1809, but it was a platinum filament powered by a huge array of batteries.  And the race was on for the balance of the 1800′s with people all over the world trying to come up with a solution that would make electric light practical.

Anyway, Edison is said to have conducted ten thousand experiments with the goal of creating a light source that would have sufficient life expectancy to be commercially viable.  Solid modeling would not have helped Edison since the work was primarily based on material science.    But modeling software has become so widespread and so powerful, that it is very widely used in product development.

The key thing to remeber is that software is a tool.  It has its uses, and it has its flaws.  We’ve found several flaws along the way.  But it allows us to work with the design and understand the system’s physical properties before we cut metal.  This saves huge amounts of time and money.  But it does not replace the fabrication step.  Even in a system as simple as the one I am working with, it is clearly necessary to build hardware and test performance.  There are too many areas that software models are not sufficiently detailed to be able to analyze reliably.

Nothing replaces hardware and testing.  Not yet.

Solar Power is Alive in LA

The Solar Power International 2010 just finished at the Los Angeles Convention Center.  This is probably the largest get together of people in the solar industry in the United States.  The top vendors from all over the world were present.

Among the many interesting developments, many new product technologies, many new solutions focused on cost reduction, and many lessons learned along the way.

In the new developments, there are a number of new product entries, especially in the concentrating solar panel area.  As a subset of the Concentrating Solar category, there are a group of products which are similar to conventional solar panels, but use a lens like a magnifying glass to concentrate the sun’s light on a small patch of silicon that converts light to electricity. This approach has been around for a while, but in the past has had thermal problems due to the heat that is produced.  Remember setting a dry leaf on fire with a magnifying glass when you were a kid? Same thing.

The cost of the optics have come down and combined with the reduced cost of the silicon used, makes this type of concentrating solar more competitive.  But this type of concentrating solar technology requires 2 axis solar tracking with a fair amount of precision in order for the optics to do their job properly.

So there are a lot of new tracking systems coming into the market as well.  Large array trackers with high angular precision and high force from vendors like Bonfiglioli of Italy, Sener and TGB Group of Spain.  These systems are generally high reduction ring gears with a precision worm and spur output in the final stage.  Once again, a major mechatronic challenge in the middle of solar technology.  To say nothing of the incredible mechatronics required to manufacture solar panels.

There are five or six vendors who have built and installed these CPV systems have an interesting advantage.  They are reporting efficiencies of 22% and higher.  This is really amazing considering that the conventional photovoltaics are are typically in the range of 12% and thin film are 8%.  These are very significant developments in making the technology more cost effective.

And the forecast growth for solar in the US continues to be, well, “sunny”.  Sales of solar products in the US are expected to double again next year.  Which is amazing.

Its hard not to get excited about it.  But there is an important truth to be considered.  Solar Energy is still highly government subsidized.  The history of solar energy is built largely through the “Feed In Tariff”.  This is a mechanism where the utility company agrees to pay a premium price for electricity generated with photovoltaic equipment.

In the early years of 2000 the Spanish government set the highest Feed In Tariffs in all of Europe.  This caused a massive influx of companies to ramp up to manufacture and install huge amounts of equipment.   And therein lies the problem.  Spain has too much capacity and not enough demand.

Germany, which has relatively poor sunlight, has led the entire EU in solar installations. German PV engineering and capacity are well know around the world.  But what’s different about the situation in Germany is that the feed in tariff is being reduced gradually to allow the industry to adjust to demand that is not subsidized.

There are 2 lessons here that are very important.  We must be careful to not “overbuild” based on enthusiasm.  And we must protect American interests by purchasing domestic products.  And currently, our political leaders do not appear to be paying attention to either of these issues.

Robots and the Future – Part 2

Robotics researchers have been pushing the envelope for the last 30 years since the inception of “artificial intelligence”.  The basics of artificial intelligence programming is the modeling of human expertise and mimicking human behavior in a variety of circumstances.

One aspect of artificial intelligence gave rise to expert systems.  Complex systems like diesel locomotives are very difficult to repair because of the large number of parts operating together.  Human experience accumulated after years of working with diesel locomotives needed to be captured in order to prevent each generation from having to apprentice workers over long periods of time in order to learn how to troubleshoot these systems. So programmers in the early days of AI were employed to learn and program the diagnostic procedures developed by skilled workmen over many years.

These programs were very successful.  But in no way do they replace human intelligence and insight.  This is simply an example of subtlety in programming a specific area of human experience.  Speech recognition continues to be a challenge after decades of effort, limited to transcription applications and simple material handling instructions.

Another area that came up was large scale logistical mapping, another Expert System.  What is the most economical way to use airplanes to transport people around the US?  When you think of a large air carrier and the number of airplanes, flights, destinations and how they might be mapped together to get the best use out of the airplanes, it is a problem that is too large and complex for a single human to work with.  Enter the expert system programmer.

But in none of these cases can a computer program exceed the boundaries of it’s programming.  Can the autonomous Jeep get from it’s starting point to it’s destination?  Yes.  With many man-years of programming and a vast array of computing power, proper deployment of sensors and actuators, and a lot of stored energy.

Can the autonomous Jeep perform any other task?  No.  Regardless of the sophistication, the machine cannot exceed the boundaries of it’s programming.

Can we teach machines to learn?  So far, only in the most crude and rudimentary way.  But the course of the learning is again bounded by the programming.

And again, I will defer discussion of true intelligence or consciousness.

But what robotics can do to expand it’s usefulness is to mimic simple human tasking where it is cost effective and where the robot can “outproduce” or exceed the precision of a human.  Robotic welding, for example, has reached the point where a basic robot welding cell is less than $50,000.  So the cost of entry, the learning curve and complexity of implementing a welding robot cell in a small production facility is very reasonable.

Will robots be used in “human service” applications?  Sure.  ”Robot, vacuum my living room”  No sweat.  We can already do that with a Roomba only it doesn’t have voice recognition yet.  We have robots that can mow the grass in the front yard and avoid shrubs and trees.  Very cool.

Will we have robot servants like C3PO in Star Wars?  Hopefully more intelligent, C3PO was kind of dumb.  Simple tasks like serving a drink at a bar? Yes, that’s been done too, although it doesn’t have philosophical conversations with customers.

Will robots be able to provide basic care in hospitals and for the elderly?  Anything is possible. It will come down to how far we can push the envelope of programming, safety and return on cost.  Certainly we get robots to get a cold beer from the fridge.  But if the fridge is empty can it run out to the store and get us a six pack?

Not anytime soon.

Mechatronics and Economics

Recently, I did some industry analysis on jobs and revenue.  How many dollars of sales are required to “create or save” a job in a given industry.  I only looked at a couple of industries and found that it ranged from $219,000 to $275,000 in sales for certain types of processed materials to employ a worker in that industry.

Obviously, this type of metric will vary wildly depending on how highly automated a particular industry is.  The beverage industry is highly automated and doesn’t have a large employee staff to generate finished products.  But interestingly, the companies that build machinery for the beverage industry have fairly high employment because it takes a combination of technically trained skilled workers to make the machinery that makes the beverage products.

The agricultural economy has grown dramatically with the introduction of machinery to assist in the process. Complex machines have been developed for many applications to increase productivity.  The latest round of enhancements are tilling and planting equipment that uses Global Positioning Satellite information to keep the tractors in a straight line and computer plots of the land to maximize the planting area per acre.  Pretty amazing stuff.

In the automotive area, there are some interesting statistics.  In the ten year period from 1998 to 2008 the industry increased its gross output per employee by 33%.  This is a huge statistic and represents the long term impact of automation on the manufacture of vehicles.  The other interesting statistic is that the average internal price of a car today is the same as that ten years ago.  Given that the US industry has pushed it’s quality to compete with the Japanese cars that were perceived as superior to US in quality, this is an amazing feat.

Of greater interest is the comparison of total vehicle shipments.  The most cars and light trucks ever shipped by the US Auto makers was in the year 2000 when we shipped 17.8 million units according to Ward’s Auto which reports on the car industry.  This feat was almost duplicated in 2005 when 17.4 mil units were shipped.

A relatively stable manufacturing base over the years, the US auto industry hit a disastrous slide in 2008 shipping an anemic 13.49 mil units followed by an even worse 2009 when we shipped 10.6 mil cars and trucks.  This was the year in which the Chinese automakers topped the US manufacturing rate for the first time ever.  A point that the Chinese press made with great vigor in spite of the fact that the majority of Chinese automakers are actually joint ventures with foreign companies, the single original Chinese auto maker being in great difficulties due to poor product quality.

The 2009 US auto showing is particularly dismal when you consider the “cash for clunkers” incentive which spent $1.4 billion taxpayer dollars to generate 200,000 additional unit sales.  A small showing in the scheme of things even if the market was 10 million units.

Will the US auto market pick back up? Certainly, but not to the former highs of 2000 and 2005.  2009 shipments were off by 40% from the 2005 high, and that is too much of a gap to be easily recovered.  Especially when unemployment continues to be running in the 10% range and higher.

Is there hope?  Yes.  Serious electric hybrids and battery manufacturing for the US automakers will create tens of thousands of jobs in the next couple of years.  Demand for foreign hybrids has been running at over 400,000 units per year, and will likely increase once there are quality US made products available.

States that pay attention to the needs of the industries they provide locations for are States that will thrive with low unemployment and low deficits.