Cars, Cars, World Cars

They are everywhere.  And even in the electronic age, the economic impact of the automobile is probably the second largest segment of the economy in the US.  And a very large feature in every industrial economy in the world.

Worldwide, we hit a recent high of 54.9 million cars built in 2007.  But there have been steady declines since.  2008 saw a slide of 3.7 percent with 52.9 million cars shipped.  2009 was down nearly 2% at 51.9 million, and 2010 appears to be on track for another sluggish year with just under 51 millions units expected to ship by year end.

The regional variances are really interesting.  Fiat’s CEO estimates European car sales to slow down by 15% during this year.  US sales, briefly bolstered by “cash for clunkers” were the worst in 24 years at 10.4 million units with sales by the Big 3 reportedly off by 20+ and 30% levels.  So if Europe and the US are off by double digits, and worldwide sales are only off by a percent or two, where are the rest of the cars being sold?

Amazingly, China’s market for new cars is exploding in double digit growth and the Chinese Auto Industry reports 13.6 million units sold in 2009.  That much more extraordinary since in 2006 they sold only 5.4 million cars.  This report has made the news everywhere.

It is certainly with great pride that the Chinese Auto Industry makes this announcement.  However, as I read the announcement more closely, they include in their data commercial trucks, which may not be the same as our light duty truck category, and buses, which are generally low in volume and shouldn’t really make much of a difference.  But differences in the reporting basis are a cause for concern about the claim and the comparison.

China has, over the two decades, worked very hard to bring its massive industrialization into the world market.  They began an aggressive program to graduate 5000 students per year with qualifications in the semiconductor industry.  With considerable forethought, they have battled their way into the mainstreams with wafer fabs and all the needed resources to become a world leader in electronics.  The years of effort have paid off.  China is the low cost leader worldwide in electronics.  But you still have to watch quality and consistency closely.  And there is still a logistics cost to ship to foreign markets like the US.

In the automotive industry it’s a bit more difficult.  Every major material science and manufacturing process must be mastered to build complex machines, often containing more than 10,000 unique parts per vehicle.  Every mechatronic discipline is involved in the vehicle operation and even more complex mechatronic challenges exist on the manufacturing floor when you are trying to make 1,000,000 of something.  It’s a daunting challenge.

Of the top ten brands in China’s car market, 9 of them are foreign joint ventures.  BYD, the lone Chinese supplier among them, is experiencing great expansion, great sales success, but significant quality problems as well.

There are a wide range of choices in the worldwide auto market.  From the Smart Car’s 45 mpg and $12,000 sticker price to the late-great Hummer’s 9 mpg and incredible $40 to $60K selling price. Italy’s Fiat has re-issued the 500 model with an impressive 69 mpg fuel rating and a price of about $13,000 (this will vary quite a bit with the Dollar versus Euro swinging around a bit).  This car hasn’t been available in the US but with the recent shuffle with Chrysler, it is possible we could see it in the future.  And 69 mpg would bring a lot of interest, even at current gas prices.

Is China going to be the giant in manufacturing over the next 10 years?  Without a doubt.  But there is still a lot of work to be done.

Are US Auto Sales coming back?  Several forecasters are projecting significant increases in 2011.  Many people, rightly concerned with a soft US economy, are uncertain.  But financial incentives for new car purchases may again be on the horizon.  And more innovation is coming as American car makers introduce more electrics, hybrids and high mileage gasoline vehicles to the market.  With a little luck, things could get a lot better.

And I am betting that they do.

Rescuing Auto Makers

Sandeep Kumar,
Chief Executive Officer
Microstaq

Let’s face it; the auto industry has fallen behind the curve.  Older mechanical systems that could have been converted to next-generation mechatronics still populate even the most technologically advanced vehicles.  Why? Because older mechanical systems are safe (as in: low job risk), thoroughly engineered, completely market accepted, and perceived to be very cost effective.

For example, we once had a conversation with an Opel executive engineer about air conditioning systems.  He said that Opel would always sacrifice access to airflow for coefficient of drag.  In other words, improving airflow to air conditioning heat exchangers right behind the bumper in the front of the car would always take a back seat to overall vehicle aerodynamics as a method to improve fuel economy.  The problem is that aerodynamics can’t make up for the horsepower drain an air conditioning compressor puts on an engine when the air conditioner is on.

Well, it turns out that OEMs like Opel can have their cake and cool it too.  Leave the front end aerodynamics alone and approach the compressor horsepower drain a separate way: electronic compressor displacement control.  A simple upgrade to electronic compressor displacement control system will optimize the compressor horsepower drain as much as possible.  In fact, electronic displacement control can improve fuel economy by as much as four miles per gallon depending on the engine size.

In addition to the fuel economy improvement, the upgrade actually can save the OEM money in other areas.  As a simple example, by integrating sensing into the electronic valve package, the OEM can eliminate the packaging and the wire harness associated with
the sensor.

That’s around a $7.00 savings.  On top of the material cost savings, the sensor and wire harness assembly step in the vehicle production process goes away.  So what does that mean from a bottom line?  It’s HUGE.  For the entire US market, the savings would equal $200 million a year for making one small (really small) change.

So why aren’t the US auto makers all over this new technology?

First, until recently, CAFÉ numbers in the US were calculated with the air conditioning off.  Second, until the advent of silicon-based control systems, electronic displacement control added weight, cost, size and complexity to the vehicle.  Third, aerodynamics, amongst other things, is sexier than compressor displacement control.

And fourth, surprisingly enough, compressor people don’t talk to air conditioning people.  Compressors as manufactured products are machining and assembly intensive.  Air conditioning modules, on the other hand, are design intensive and relatively easy to manufacture (brazed heat exchangers are bolted into snap-together injection molded plastic cases).  The engineering disciplines are not remotely similar, so air conditioning engineers and compressor engineers are in different buildings and never talk.

The same dynamic is going on in automatic transmissions.  Automatic transmissions are electronically controlled, but have you ever seen the transmission fluid routing valve body on an automatic transmission?  Valve bodies range in size from a small dictionary to an over-stuffed three-inch binder and weigh anywhere from six to fifteen pounds.  An integrated silicon valve body looks and weighs the same as a Blackberry.  An automatic transmission is just like a manual transmission except that the driver doesn’t have to push in the clutch and work the lever.  The trick is knowing when to shift, and how quickly to shift.  Most of the smarts in an electronic automatic transmission are employed in figuring out those two things: when to shift, and how quickly to shift.  Consequently, transmission engineers grab what’s available to hydraulically push in the clutch, which typically includes a solenoid valve to turn on and off the flow of transmission fluid.  Solenoid valves do the job, but they’re bulky, heavy, costly, impossible to integrate with sensors, and not particularly easy to control electronically.

So, come on auto industry!  Let’s work together to save hundreds of dollars by converting mechanical systems into electronics and software.  Let’s use the next generation of micro electromechanical systems (MEMS) fluid management devices, where integration will save space, weight, and cost while improving not only subsystem performance but fuel economy too!

Let’s look at how we can combine MEMS sensors and valves with custom ASICs to achieve unprecedented control and performance improvement.  76% of cars on the planet have an air conditioning system, and around 90% of all cars have automatic transmissions.  Here’s an opportunity in two segments to help the planet and reduce the energy burden: the silicon MEMS based control systems have less moving parts and so last virtually forever.  Reducing loads on moving systems like engines and transmissions by better control lengthens the lives of those systems: longer lives equals longer vehicle retention and less material in landfills and salvage yards.  Engines working less to provide air conditioning means lower emissions and less gasoline consumption.

Automotive engineering prowess —once the pride of the industrial world — could once again earn global admiration and respect, attracting the best and brightest new graduates. And customers will come flocking back for cars and trucks that are easier on the gas pump.

Microstaq
www.microstaq.com